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3 Frustrating Issues You Need To Deal With During The 2016 NFL Season… If You Insist On Flat Betting
Fellow Sports Bettor,
My name is Jerry Higgins. I've been betting on sports since I moved to Reno, Nevada back in 1988.
like many sports bettors, I soon became addicted to playing the 11 to win 10 game, laying and taking the points. I never had a clue that there was any other way to bet on football, except for an infrequent moneyline wager.
Sure I played the occasional parlay or teaser but never saw much future in them.
Over the years I've had my share of ups and downs, but managed to turn myself into a fairly competent handicapper.
It sure as hell wasn't easy!
In fact, most would agree that…
Betting on sports is a hell of a hard way to win money
Outsmarting the oddsmaker and uncovering those so-called 'bad' lines takes a lot of work. The sportsbooks, who have a thorough understanding of public betting perceptions, are masters at removing most of the line value to be had.
Especially in the NFL.
Although it took me much longer than it should have, I eventually came to the realization that there was an easier way to beat the oddsmaker.
It requires adopting a different betting paradigm than what you currently have. You have to move past the idea of flat betting and playing the 11 to win 10 game.
There are three extremely frustrating issues you will need to deal with during the 2016 NFL season if you continue to bet as you've been betting.
Issue #1 - There are only 256 NFL games to bet on
Because of that fact, you are limited to how much money you can win during the season.
A small number of games doesn't allow a bettor to apply a small mathematical edge over a large base of games (like in basketball and baseball) to produce a significant amount of profit.
Say you bet 5 games per week over the course of the 17 week NFL schedule. That's 85 wagers for the season.
Let's also say that you win 60% of those 5 bets. That's no easy task, but I'll assume you're one helluva handicapper.
That would leave you a 51-34 ATS record at seasons end… which, if you were flat betting to win $100 at 10/11 odds, would leave you with a profit of only $1360 or…
13.6 net units for the entire season!
Certainly you could (and probably would) bump up your bet size as your bankroll increased over the course of the season, but let's keep things simple for now.
I don't know about you but 13.6 units of profit doesn't seem like a very decent return for all the time you spent handicapping your ass off for 17 weeks.
Which points directly to the next issue…
Issue #2 - Thorough handicapping takes a lot of time
Sure, the beauty of football is that you have the entire week to analyze the games, but if you want to win a decent percentage of your wagers, you've got to put in the necessary work.
This takes time, experience and the ability to keep an unbiased perspective while the radio, TV and internet is constantly bombarding you with their so-called 'expert' opinions.
It's difficult, at best, to not allow yourself to become influenced by all the noise.
If these first two points aren't enough to open your eyes, then consider this…
Issue #3 - Even the best handicappers can have a down year
No one really wants to talk about this issue, much less admit to it, but…
There are so many things that you can't control when betting on sports, especially in the NFL with all the parity.
It's entirely possible and even probable that a really good, competent football handicapper will have an 'off' or 'down' year every so often.
Instead of their typical 55 to 60% win rate, they wind up winning only 50 to 52% of their wagers… losing money or maybe breaking even.
That's the reality of betting on the NFL with flat bets and playing the 11 to win 10 game.
If it could happen to them, it could happen to you. Maybe it has.
There's a better, and more profitable way to beat the NFL
I've been keeping my own personal NFL betting records since 1991. For the first few years I recorded everything by hand (as you can see in the image on the right). Now of course, I use a spreadsheet.
Performing my own record keeping gives me a 'feel' for the ebb and flow that certain teams go through during the course of the season.
It also allows me to see certain patterns that repeat themselves over and over.
One such pattern really caught my attention. So much so that I tracked it back to 1983. What I found was an overall, long-term winning percentage of 61%!
This NFL betting strategy takes advantage of the overwhelming parity present in today's NFL and puts it to use in our favor.
The good thing is that those long-term ATS numbers haven't wavered one little bit since.
The bad thing is that there were occasional losing or break-even seasons sprinkled in over the years.
The truth is, any betting strategy that has a proven winning record of 61% over an extended period of time (32 years), has some merit. A statistician would refer to that as a significant sample size.
A simple tweak that makes it profitable every season
To overcome these occasional losing/break-even seasons, I combined this strategy with a well-known money management system so that it's profitable every year.
How profitable? Here are the results for the past three seasons. (Don't worry, this system has been equally as profitable for much longer than that).
» 2013 +22 units
» 2014 +15 units
» 2015 +5 units
No, last season doesn't indicate a downward trend, rather a typical 'deviation from the norm' that any short, 3 year sample size would incur. Even with last season being an anomaly with a capital 'A', it's still an average of +14 units per season…
And that's without doing any handicapping at all.
Remember, this little system has been consistently winning at a 61% clip since 1983… and most likely, even longer than that.
The same number of units as traditional handicapping will produce without…
- Any time spent handicapping
- Wondering if you can even hit 60% winners
- The risk of over-thinking a game and out-smarting yourself
This is a mechanistic type of betting system that completely removes you, your hidden biases, faulty analysis and bullshit beliefs from the betting equation. It requires…
No thinking, No analyzing and No 2nd guessing yourself
Sure, I realize that +14 units isn't a fortune, but with a finite number of NFL games, there are just so many wagering opportunities available.
Keep in mind that since my system takes so little time to isolate the plays, you can use it in conjunction with your other NFL betting activities to win even more money.
This betting strategy/system will…
- Generate, on average, between 15 and 20 net betting units per year
- Take you only 5 to 10 minutes of your time per week
- Free you up from the time consuming and tedious chore of handicapping
- Inspire a paradigm shift, opening up different ways to win money
- Require that you keep track of ATS performance/streaks
Don't make everything so damn hard!
Sports bettors tend to make things more complicated and difficult than they need to be. It doesn't have to be that way.
This NFL betting system is proof of that!
It's simple, straightforward and profitable!
It's also affordable.
Like In $27 Affordable
Why waste $25 on an 8 team parlay that might hit once every 5 years when you can spend $27 for this system and win 20 units of profit every season!
After making your PayPal payment you will receive the system as a digitally downloadable PDF file. It will be delivered to you right after making your purchase.
If you're sitting on the fence about buying this, I'm going to entice you to get off it…
With a Bribe
If you're like many sports bettors, you enjoy handicapping the games in order to find a betting edge.
I myself have been analyzing and handicapping sports for over 27 years.
Yes, it does take some work, but it can be quite rewarding too.
Back in January (of 2016), I put together a short report that handicapped Super Bowl 50. If I had picked the loser, would I be offering this report to you now?
No way, but at least I'm being honest. However I did manage to pick the winner (Denver) and it only took me about an hour to do so.
I just looked at the same, exact 7 areas that I use to handicap any regular season game.
The handicapping method that I employ is based on sound fundamental football principles that allow you to objectively see through the smoke screen that is hiding the truth about any particular NFL game.
This Super Bowl 50 handicapping report/outline (that I wrote back in January of 2016) is yours as a bribe/bonus for purchasing this NFL betting system.
You will receive the Super Bowl 50 report in the same ZIP file that contains my NFL betting system.
You can use the report as a guide to pick NFL winners for any regular season or playoff game.
This cool bonus is intended to make this offer irresistible
If you feel that it is irresistible (or at the very least, a worthy addition to your 2016 NFL betting toolbox), click on the Buy Now button now.
If you want to go beyond limiting ideas of how to win money, there is a playing field that few ever find. I'll see you there.